Sunday, December 20, 2009

ThrawnOmega Predicts the Future: Avatar Edition

My crystal ball has sat dormant for too long. In fact, I haven't offered any future predictions since June, over six months ago! So, I figured after having my face melted by the epicness of Avatar (see yesterday's post), I thought I'd look at how this revolutionary movie is going to ultimately change hollywood.

First though, I'd like to say one of my future predictions has come to pass, sooner than I had anticipated. Back in June, I predicted:

12. Say goodbye to the file-size limit for XBLA games. There won't be one.

That was in reference to XBLA for the next Xbox. Turns out since I made that prediction Microsoft killed the size limit for the 360. So. while not a direct correlation, this almost 100% guarantees this prediction will pan out. Why would they backpedal on a good decision for their next system? I'm going to chalk this down as my 2nd correct prediction. The first being:

FFXIII will not be exclusive to the PS3.

I had that one nailed down a year before the official announcement.

ThrawnOmega Predicts the Future: Episode IV: Avatar Edition

Avatar is the most expensive movie ever made, with a cost of over $300 million to make and another $200 million in distribution, marketing, etc. costs. No worries though, Avatar will make it all back and more, helped in part by a higher than average number of people who see the movie multiple times. Put me down for a total box office take of $730 million worldwide before leaving theaters.

3D is the way of the future. Within the next 10 years, we're going to see a huge surge in the number of 3D movies, as Avatar's proprietary camera technology becomes more commonplace. Come 2019, most, if not all, major hollywood releases will be in full 3D.

Both George Lucas and Stephen Speilberg were shown the technology during the production of Avatar. Lucas is impossible to predict, but I promise you Speilberg will use the technology... probably sooner rather than later. Look for a Speilberg 3D movie using Avatar tech within the next 3 years. Jurassic Park 4, if it ever gets made, will be in 3D.

Avatar is actually 40% Live action, 60% photorealistic CGI. By 2015, Avatar Tech (including the new motion capture technologies) will be used to produce a 100% CGI movie, but it will look so damn good you wouldn't believe it.

Avatar wins every award know to man for visual effects. No contest. Don't even bother nominating anyone else. It may also win best musical score, Cameron has a shot at director (will be nominated at minimum for Oscar), and Zoe Salanda will be considered for her role as Neytiri. I'd like to see Avatar in the run for best picture, but it wouldn't win it.

Cameron is on record as saying if Avatar is successful, he'd like to do two sequels. My prayer to whatever celestial entity oversees the universe is that Avatar will indeed become a trilogy. The world of Pandora is far too captivating to be limited to one movie. Fictional or not, the Na'vi culture fascinates me, and I'd like to see more of it. (I do have a Sociology degree, so a lot of interesting cultures appeal to me). All good things come to those who wait... and wait we must, because Avatar 2 won't be out until winter 2013 or summer 2014.

Like Star Wars, the Avatar universe will expand beyond the movie. Besides the obvious toy lines and already released tie-in game, a novel line or comic line would not surprise me in the least. Look around... Game franchises Starcraft, Warcraft, Gears, Halo, Mass Effect, Rwsident Evil... they all have related novels. In movies, Aliens and Predator have some, as does Terminator, and there are more. Tie in novels have come out for TV shows Stargate SG-1, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Star Trek (which like Star Wars has spawned a huge novel line). Avatar will get the novel treatment, and you bet I'll read 'em.

Earlier this year, I thought to myself, "District 9 is the movie I'm buying a Bluray player for." Well, now I'm thinking... "Avatar is the movie to make me buy the biggest LED TV I can possibly afford in order to watch it in full splendor." I'm already saving.

Time to put the crystal ball away for a month (or six...) have a great night everyone!

1 comment:

  1. Seeing as how many theaters still don't do 3D, either there won't be a huge demand for it (because people won't want to go out of their way to see a movie), or if there actually is high demand, smaller movie theaters will die off, leaving only giant corporate theaters who begin to sell small popcorns for $20. That's just my prediction.

    BTW, happy 1yr anniversary Thrawnblog.